أخطاء تقدير الجدوى الاقتصادية وقرارات الاستثمار الخاطئة (Feasibility Estimation Errors & Bad Investment Calls)
Definition
Masterplan feasibility depends on accurate infrastructure cost estimation, which 'plays a key role in deciding whether a masterplan development moves from the design stage to construction.'[2] If cost estimates are inaccurate—underestimated utility demands, missed Brownfield remediation costs, or overestimated market demand—projects proceed despite poor economics. Sunk development costs (design, approvals, enabling works) can reach AED 100-500M before construction; abandonment at this stage results in total loss.
Key Findings
- Financial Impact: LOGIC-based estimate: Typical major UAE masterplan CAPEX: AED 2-5B; if 10-15% are ultimately cancelled or indefinitely paused due to cost estimation errors: AED 200-750M per project lost capital. Industry-wide (20+ major developments in UAE at any time): estimated trapped capital AED 4-15B from poor feasibility decisions.
- Frequency: Every major masterplan feasibility cycle; typical timeline: 6-12 months from cost estimation to investment decision
- Root Cause: Manual iterative cost modeling without real-time utility demand validation[2]; insufficient ground condition surveys in feasibility phase; outdated market demand forecasts
Why This Matters
This pain point represents a significant opportunity for B2B solutions targeting Subdivision of Land.
Affected Stakeholders
Chief Development Officers, Finance Directors, Investment Committee Members, Feasibility Analysts
Action Plan
Run AI-powered research on this problem. Each action generates a detailed report with sources.
Methodology & Sources
Data collected via OSINT from regulatory filings, industry audits, and verified case studies.