🇦🇺Australia

Outage-Driven Price Spikes

1 verified sources

Definition

Unplanned outages at ageing coal plants caused four severe NEM price spikes; coal availability drops 10-20% during high risk periods.

Key Findings

  • Financial Impact: AUD 100k+/MWh during spikes (e.g., AUD 15B total NEM spike costs 2017-2022, coal-linked)
  • Frequency: Multiple events yearly during outage clusters
  • Root Cause: Failure to predict/report forced outages, leading to supply shortfalls

Why This Matters

The Pitch: Fossil Fuel Electric Power Generation incurs AUD millions in spot price penalties from outages. Automated Forced Outage Reporting stabilises market exposure.

Affected Stakeholders

Trading Managers, Risk Analysts, Compliance Officers

Deep Analysis (Premium)

Financial Impact

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Current Workarounds

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Methodology & Sources

Data collected via OSINT from regulatory filings, industry audits, and verified case studies.

Evidence Sources:

Related Business Risks

Forced Outage Capacity Losses

AUD millions in lost generation revenue daily (4.7 GW at AUD 100/MWh = ~AUD 470k/hour lost)

Unplanned Outage Surges

AUD 10-50M+ in lost revenue per prolonged outage event (industry est. for multi-GW shortfalls)

Safeguard Mechanism Non-Compliance Fines

AUD 22,520 per tonne of excess emissions (base penalty escalating with multiple breaches)

Manual ACCU Trading and Compliance Costs

AUD 50,000-100,000 annually per facility in labour (200-400 hours at AUD 250/hr)

Reportable Priority Waste Non-Compliance

AUD 297,663 max fine per breach (300 penalty units x AUD 992.25 as of 2025); plus permission fees AUD 1,000-5,000/site.

Ash Disposal Landfill and Compliance Costs

20-40 hours/month manual reporting per site; landfill tipping fees AUD 100-200/tonne for non-reused ash.

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