Fehlentscheidungen bei Rentenplanung durch falsche Inflations- und COLA-Annahmen

Definition

Regulated retirement and superannuation calculators (e.g. Moneysmart’s superannuation and account‑based pension calculators, as well as major fund tools) explicitly adjust results for future cost of living by assuming specific CPI and wage inflation rates, such as 2.5% CPI and 3.7% wage inflation.[2][3][5][8] These assumptions drive projections of retirement income, age pension indexation (linked to the higher of CPI or wages), and the real value of withdrawals.[3][5][7] If a fund’s internal models, product pricing and member‑facing tools use inconsistent or outdated inflation/COLA parameters—especially during periods when ABS‑reported CPI deviates significantly from the 2.5% long‑term assumption (e.g. 4.1% annual CPI to December 2024)—the fund can materially mis‑estimate how long member balances will last, required contribution rates, and the long‑term cost of any guaranteed or minimum benefit features.[2][3][4][5][7][10] For example, under‑estimating effective COLA by 1 percentage point over a 20‑year payout horizon on a AUD 30,000 p.a. target income implies a shortfall of roughly AUD 6,000–7,000 per member in real purchasing power, pushing dissatisfied members to draw down faster or complain, and forcing the fund to absorb mismatches in products with income guarantees. Scaled to 50,000–100,000 retirees, this becomes a strategic mis‑pricing error in the hundreds of millions of AUD over the life of the liabilities.

Why This Matters

The Pitch: Pension funds in Australia 🇦🇺 misallocate tens of millions of AUD over decades by using inconsistent or stale COLA and inflation assumptions. Centralising CPI data and automating assumption updates can reduce these decision errors and protect margins.

Affected Stakeholders

Chief investment officers and ALM teams, Product and pricing actuaries, Financial advice and guidance teams, Digital and calculator owners, Regulatory reporting and risk teams

Related Business Risks