Estimation Method Inaccuracies
Definition
NASA reports highlight overly optimistic estimates leading to massive overruns, with subsystem-level discrepancies driving financial risks relevant to Australian space R&D.
Key Findings
- Financial Impact: 31% average cost growth; AUD 5.7B portfolio overruns (2023 NASA equiv.)
- Frequency: At each milestone review (KDP-B, KDP-C)
- Root Cause: Low heritage data, complexity factors, optimistic baselines
Why This Matters
The Pitch: Space technology firms in Australia 🇦🇺 face AUD 2B+ annual overruns from flawed estimates. Automation of comparative analysis tools cuts this loss.
Affected Stakeholders
Cost Estimators, Systems Engineers, Program Directors
Deep Analysis (Premium)
Financial Impact
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Current Workarounds
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Methodology & Sources
Data collected via OSINT from regulatory filings, industry audits, and verified case studies.
Related Business Risks
Flight Hardware Inventory Chain Overheads
Equipment Idle in Payload Qualification
Inventory Shrinkage in Space Supply Chains
GST/BAS Lodgement Penalties
Superannuation Guarantee Charge
ITAR Licensing Delays
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