🇩🇪Germany

Unvollständige Dokumentation von Katastrophenschaden-Modellierungsprozessen führt zu Betriebsprüfungs-Risiken

3 verified sources

Definition

The search results indicate that catastrophe models operate as complex proprietary systems requiring transparency and back-testing. Milliman notes that catastrophe models 'incorporate scientific understanding about risk drivers' and produce outputs ('financial estimates, integrating insurance policy terms such as insured limits and deductibles'). However, vendor models typically provide limited transparency into parameter assumptions. AXA's solution emphasizes that 'the transparency of the model will enhance AXA's reports to regulators' and that 'we can understand and explain each and every part of the model'—implying that standard vendor models lack this transparency. German tax auditors (Betriebsprüfung) and BaFin regulators increasingly demand: (1) Full documentation of model assumptions, (2) Sensitivity analysis showing impact of parameter changes on reserves, (3) Back-testing results comparing modeled losses to actual claims, (4) Audit trails showing which model version was used in which reserve decision. Non-compliance with GoBD §14 UStG (digital documentation) and Solvency II Article 19 (governance) can result in fines.

Key Findings

  • Financial Impact: €5-50K per Betriebsprüfung (audit fine for inadequate documentation); 50-100 hours/year remedial compliance work per actuarial team (€7-15K labor cost); potential 10-20% disallowance of claimed reserves if audit finds insufficient model documentation
  • Frequency: Per Betriebsprüfung cycle (typically every 3-5 years); continuous risk during reserve adequacy monitoring
  • Root Cause: Vendor model black-box problem (limited transparency into parameters and assumptions); absence of automated audit logging in claims-to-model workflows; lack of standardized documentation templates for catastrophe modeling decisions

Why This Matters

This pain point represents a significant opportunity for B2B solutions targeting Claims Adjusting, Actuarial Services.

Affected Stakeholders

Chief Actuaries (Hauptaktuare, Versicherungsmathematiker), Internal Auditors (Interne Revision), Tax & Compliance Managers (Steuerberater, Compliance Officer), Regulatory Reporting Specialists (BaFin Berichtserstattung)

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Financial Impact

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Current Workarounds

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Methodology & Sources

Data collected via OSINT from regulatory filings, industry audits, and verified case studies.

Evidence Sources:

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