🇩🇪Germany

Fehlerhafte Kostenestimation in Machbarkeitsstudien

1 verified sources

Definition

Cost overruns in German hydroelectric projects stem from inaccurate prefeasibility modeling. Stuttgart research identifies costing equation accuracy as 'the strongest affect on outcome of cost analysis.' Manual, spreadsheet-based estimation approaches introduce systematic errors; Monte Carlo simulations show wide variance in NPV projections. RETScreen and comparable methodologies, when properly calibrated, reduce estimation error by ~30-50% vs. baseline approaches.

Key Findings

  • Financial Impact: 5-15% of total project capex (€500K–€10M+ per project); 30-40 hours/month in cost re-estimation and scope change management
  • Frequency: Per project development phase; 1-2 major projects per operator per decade
  • Root Cause: Manual cost equation development; inadequate validation against historical data; lack of Monte Carlo risk simulation; insufficient calibration to German-specific labor/supply costs

Why This Matters

This pain point represents a significant opportunity for B2B solutions targeting Hydroelectric Power Generation.

Affected Stakeholders

Project Estimators, Finance Managers, Risk Officers, Development Engineers

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Financial Impact

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Current Workarounds

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Methodology & Sources

Data collected via OSINT from regulatory filings, industry audits, and verified case studies.

Evidence Sources:

Related Business Risks

Suboptimale Turbinenauslegung und Designentscheidungen

30-50% capital cost premium per installation; €5M-€50M+ per major project, depending on plant scale. Example: 10MW plant would waste €3M-€15M in design inefficiency.

Ineffiziente Turbinendisposition und manuelle Lastverteilung

70% opex waste on comparable dispatch; €1–€5M annually per large plant (10-50MW); breakeven in <5 years

Audit- und Registrierungskosten für Zertifizierungsscheme-Compliance

€10,000–€50,000 annually per facility (direct audit/scheme fees: €10,000–€30,000 + internal compliance labor: 40–80 hours × €50–75/hour = €2,000–€6,000).

GoBD-Konformität in PPA-Abrechnung – Audit-Risiko durch manuelle Datenverarbeitung

€10,000–€50,000 per audit cycle; €5,000–€20,000 per e-invoicing mandate violation; 30–60 hours remediation effort per audit finding

Verzögerte PPA-Abrechnungszyklen durch manuelle Spot-Preis-Reconciliation

€500,000–€2,000,000 annually in working capital financing costs (assuming 8% borrowing rate, 20–40 day delay on €5,000–€10,000 average monthly invoices)

Billing-Fehler in Settlement-Berechnungen führen zu Refund-Cascades

€50,000–€500,000 annually (refunds + foregone contract renewals); 10–30 hours dispute resolution per billing cycle

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