Fehlentscheidungen bei Gasturbinen-Ausbau durch unzureichende Szenarioanalyse
Definition
20 GW gas capacity plan was approved without formal comparative analysis of alternative flexibility sources (virtual power plants, demand-side response, storage). Manual stakeholder feedback loops led to post-hoc scaling (20→12.5 GW) and regulatory challenges.
Key Findings
- Financial Impact: €2–5B potential subsidy/capex misallocation; €50–100M annual planning inefficiency across sector
- Frequency: Per capacity expansion cycle (3–5 years)
- Root Cause: Lack of integrated scenario modeling tool; siloed technical teams (gas planners ≠ renewable integration teams); manual stakeholder coordination
Why This Matters
This pain point represents a significant opportunity for B2B solutions targeting Natural Gas Distribution.
Affected Stakeholders
Strategy/Planning, Economics, Regulatory Affairs, Capital Allocation
Deep Analysis (Premium)
Financial Impact
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Current Workarounds
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Methodology & Sources
Data collected via OSINT from regulatory filings, industry audits, and verified case studies.
Related Business Risks
Genehmigungsverzögerungen und Kapazitätsabbau bei Kraftwerksausbau
Administrative Lasten aus neuen Verteilernetzentwicklungsplänen (VNEP)
Verzögerung bei Ausschreibungen für Gaskapazität (Spring 2026 Start)
Kontrahierungsverluste durch erzwungene Spotmarkt-Beschaffung
Erzwungene Speicherauffüllung unter unwirtschaftlichen Bedingungen
Regulatorische Gebühren und Konversionsneutraliätsgebühr
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