🇩🇪Germany

Fehlerhafte Entscheidungsprozesse und mangelhafte Kostenkontrolle in Raumfahrtprojekten

2 verified sources

Definition

The Hertie School study concludes: 'These miscalculations resulted from faulty processes in the areas of decision-making, planning and management. Administrators and political leaders are often too optimistic and overestimate their own skills. This, for example, leads to decision-makers agreeing to contractual stipulations that burden public expenditure with risk or give companies false incentives.' Specifically for space technology and ICT projects (394% average overrun), the root cause is not technical complexity alone, but governance failure at decision points where budget increases are approved without adequate scrutiny. Space projects (under DLR and BMWi) lack structured re-forecasting gates that would trigger corrective action.

Key Findings

  • Financial Impact: €59 billion across 170 projects attributable in part to poor decision processes. For space sector (€1.2B annual budget), if 15–25% of overruns stem from decision errors (conservatively), annual loss = €180–300 million.
  • Frequency: Continuous: Every project phase that lacks mandatory reforecasting gates; decision errors compound across multi-year projects.
  • Root Cause: Optimism bias by administrators; absence of real-time cost tracking; no formal structured decision gates with mandatory reforecasting; contractual terms that shield contractors from cost risk.

Why This Matters

This pain point represents a significant opportunity for B2B solutions targeting Space Research and Technology.

Affected Stakeholders

Project governance boards, Budget approvers, Ministry officials (BMWi, BMVBS), DLR project leadership, Political decision-makers

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Financial Impact

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Current Workarounds

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Methodology & Sources

Data collected via OSINT from regulatory filings, industry audits, and verified case studies.

Evidence Sources:

Related Business Risks

Fehlende Weltraumhaftungsregelung und unbegrenzte Staatshaftung

€500K–€5M annually per operator due to: (1) Manual insurance procurement with international brokers = 100–200 hours/year at €150–250/hour = €15K–€50K; (2) Legal complexity and contract negotiation overhead = €50K–€500K per operator; (3) Delayed market entry = lost revenue from 3–12 month delays; (4) State's unlimited liability exposure = unquantified but significant contingent liability.

Ineffiziente Versicherungsbeschaffung durch fehlende risikobasierte Versicherungsstaffeln

€2M–€10M annually across German space sector due to: (1) Over-insurance for low-risk missions (premium overage 20–40% above UK/US tiered rates); (2) Manual underwriting delays = 4–6 weeks × average operator cost of €50K/week = €200K–€300K per operator; (3) Rush order premiums for delayed projects = 5–15% premium markup.

Manuelle Versicherungsbeschaffung und Flaschenhals bei Genehmigungen

€1M–€5M annually per operator cohort due to: (1) Manual coordination overhead = 50–100 hours/mission × €150/hour × 4–6 missions/year = €30K–€90K/operator; (2) Launch delays (4–12 weeks) = lost revenue from postponed missions or customer penalties = €250K–€2M per delayed mission; (3) Idle capacity = satellites/launch vehicles sitting due to insurance delays = 15–25% capacity loss.

Fehlende Transparenz bei Versicherungsanforderungen führt zu suboptimalen Verträgen

€500K–€3M annually across German space sector due to: (1) Over-insurance = 15–30% premium overage vs. market optimal rate; (2) Unfavorable contract terms = 5–10% higher deductibles, liability caps, exclusions; (3) Broker inefficiency = 20–30% higher fees due to lack of competition; (4) Coverage gaps discovered post-launch = rework/amendments = €50K–€500K per incident.

Auszahlungsverzögerungen bei Förderanträgen (Disbursement Processing Delays)

€25,000–€50,000 per €500k grant (5–10% opportunity cost); estimated €30–€150M sector-wide annually (based on 14,500 projects × avg delay impact)

Dokumentationsmängel und Förderrückforderungen (Documentation Deficiencies & Grant Clawback Risk)

€50,000–€200,000 per audit (avg. clawback on €500k–€2M grants); estimated €75–€300M sector-wide liability on outstanding €2B DLR portfolio

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