Competing Against Natural Gas Backup and Peaking Plants

Definition

Biomass plants are baseload generators but must compete in wholesale markets against natural gas peaking plants and increasingly, battery storage and demand response. As natural gas prices remain relatively stable and low (US is major LNG exporter), utilities can dispatch gas plants flexibly at low marginal cost. Biomass cannot adjust output as quickly/cheaply and cannot compete on variable cost basis when gas is available at $3-5/MMBtu. Grid operators increasingly value flexibility over baseload for managing renewable intermittency. Plant managers face: (1) reduced wholesale market value for firm baseload (historically premium vs. variable renewables), (2) difficulty securing capacity payments or reliability contracts, (3) pressure to operate as must-take resource at lower value, (4) stranded capacity during low-demand periods. Battery storage is increasingly competitive for reliability provision at fraction of the cost. The economic case for biomass baseload has eroded significantly over 5 years. Plant managers attempting to optimize merchant operations must accept lower capacity factors or shut down during low-price periods (economic curtailment).

Why This Matters

Flexible generation capabilities consulting, hybrid biomass-renewable projects (co-located with solar/battery), grid service revenue development (ancillary services, frequency regulation), market participation advisory

Affected Stakeholders

Plant Manager/General Manager

Related Business Risks