Generator Retirement Planning and Replacement Uncertainty

Definition

Generation retirements of up to 115 GW are possible by 2034, coinciding with peak demand growth of 122 GW by 2030. This creates a critical timing mismatch: utilities must retire coal and nuclear plants per environmental/market pressures while simultaneously needing to add generation to meet demand. Operations directors face contradictory mandates to retire reliable baseload capacity while maintaining reliability. Replacement generation (wind, solar, battery) faces multi-year interconnection delays, making it impossible to sequence retirements safely. Asset stranding risk is acute: utilities with coal or gas plants nearing end-of-life must decide whether to relicense/upgrade (sunk costs, short asset life) or retire (reliability gap). CFOs cannot accurately predict when replacement capacity will be available, making retirement timing decisions nearly impossible. Wholesale electricity price forecasts that support replacement generation economics are highly uncertain.

Why This Matters

Asset retirement planning and sequencing optimization software, replacement generation procurement and bidding platforms, wholesale electricity price forecasting analytics, regulatory strategy for retirement filings, alternative asset monetization and repurposing consulting

Affected Stakeholders

General Manager / Operations Director, Chief Financial Officer / Finance Manager

Related Business Risks