Inaccurate Forward Pricing of Change Orders
Definition
Forward pricing relies on estimates rather than actual costs, leading to poor decisions on fair pricing for shipbuilding changes. This results in either underpricing (losses) or disputes with owners over reasonableness. NAVSEA guidelines highlight risks in rough order of magnitude estimates for modifications.
Key Findings
- Financial Impact: Unrecovered costs from underestimated modifications
- Frequency: Per change order in design and construction phases
- Root Cause: Reliance on estimates without actual performance data; lack of detailed scoping for complex changes
Why This Matters
This pain point represents a significant opportunity for B2B solutions targeting Shipbuilding.
Affected Stakeholders
cost estimators, contracting officers, SUPSHIP personnel
Deep Analysis (Premium)
Financial Impact
$100,000-$400,000 per change dispute (2-3 pricing disputes per cruise ship build; rework costs $20k-$100k per dispute; delayed billing 2-4 weeks impacts cash flow) β’ $100,000-$500,000 per change (design changes typically require 2-4 change orders per new vessel; 10-15% of estimates are inaccurate, causing disputes or unrecovered costs) β’ $100K-$600K per modification; 15-25% underpricing to retain customer relationship; expedited labor costs add 20-30% but aren't fully recovered; customer disputes invoices at final reconciliation
Current Workarounds
Ad-hoc estimation using past ferry project data (often 2-5 years old); phone calls to regulatory consultants and component suppliers; costs documented in email with no formal version control β’ Contracts Administrator compiles estimate justification from Production email + regulatory consultant quotes + vendor price lists; manually cross-checks against historical ferry project comps; negotiation via email/phone; no formal documented process β’ Contracts Administrator receives estimate from Production Control (often backed by email trail, not formal documentation); manually compares against contract pricing schedule and historical comps; negotiates back-and-forth via email; resolution takes 2-4 weeks; documented only in email archive with no version control
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Methodology & Sources
Data collected via OSINT from regulatory filings, industry audits, and verified case studies.
Related Business Risks
Cumulative Disruption from Multiple Change Orders
Unapproved or Underpriced Change Orders
DFARS Non-Compliance Leading to Contract Suspensions and Remediation Costs
Excessive Warranty Repair Costs from Post-Delivery Defects
Unsecured Warranty Liabilities Causing Cash Flow Bleeds
Lost Warranty Claims Due to Procedural Non-Compliance
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