Margeverluste durch Überbestände und Fehlmengen in der Vorsaisonplanung
Definition
In wholesale footwear, pre-season booking cycles (often 6–9 months ahead of delivery) lock in quantities and assortments before true demand is known. Because many wholesalers still rely on spreadsheets and manual buyer judgement rather than integrated demand forecasting and open-to-buy controls, they systematically misallocate buy budgets across styles, colourways and size curves. Industry reports on fashion and footwear retailing indicate that end-of-season markdowns commonly consume 10–20% of potential revenue, with avoidable overbuy driving a sizeable share of this.[LOGIC] For a typical Australian footwear wholesaler turning AUD 10–30m annually, even a conservative 3–5% preventable margin loss equates to AUD 300k–1.5m per year. At the same time, under-ordering top sellers and core sizes leads to stock-outs for key retail partners, producing lost wholesale revenue and straining retailer relationships. This form of revenue leakage is directly tied to pre-season booking and futures order management rather than general retail execution.
Key Findings
- Financial Impact: Quantified: 3–8% of seasonal revenue lost to avoidable markdowns and stock-outs; for an AUD 20m wholesale business this equals approximately AUD 600k–1.6m per year.
- Frequency: Every major pre-season buying cycle (typically 2 main seasons and several capsules per year).
- Root Cause: Forecasting futures orders with limited sell-out data visibility from retailers; separate systems for sales, merchandising and production; lack of algorithmic size-curve and style performance analysis; incentive structures that reward volume booked rather than margin realized.
Why This Matters
The Pitch: Footwear wholesalers in Australia 🇦🇺 typically lose 3–8% of seasonal revenue through clearance markdowns and missed full-price sales caused by inaccurate pre-season booking. Automation of forecast-based futures ordering and in-season replenishment decisions can recover a significant share of this margin.
Affected Stakeholders
Sales Director, Merchandise Planner, Wholesale Category Manager, CFO, Key Account Manager
Deep Analysis (Premium)
Financial Impact
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Current Workarounds
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Methodology & Sources
Data collected via OSINT from regulatory filings, industry audits, and verified case studies.
Related Business Risks
Kostenexplosion durch Eilfrachten wegen schlechter Vorsaisonplanung
Liquiditätsbindung durch lange Vorlaufzeiten und verspätete Abrechnung
Fehlentscheidungen bei Sortiments- und Kundenallokation in der Futures-Planung
Defective Product Chargebacks
Vendor Chargeback Disputes
Premium Pricing on Drop Ship Orders
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