🇧🇷Brazil

Perda de Capacidade por Curtailment

3 verified sources

Definition

Curtailment in Brazilian solar projects, driven by grid constraints and poor forecasting, results in significant lost energy production. Northeast region faces up to 11% curtailment by 2035, directly impacting revenue from undelivered power.

Key Findings

  • Financial Impact: R$ 2-5 billion annually in lost revenue (8-11% national curtailment on 67 GW solar capacity at avg R$ 400/MWh).
  • Frequency: Daily during peak solar hours (8am-5pm), escalating to 8% national average by 2035.
  • Root Cause: Inadequate grid investment, transmission delays, and forecasting errors in oversupplied solar regions like Northeast.

Why This Matters

The Pitch: Solar electric power generation players in Brasil 🇧🇷 lose up to 11% of potential revenue due to curtailment. Automation of power production forecasting and curtailment management eliminates this capacity loss.

Affected Stakeholders

Gerente de Operações, Engenheiro de Produção, Equipe de Forecasting

Deep Analysis (Premium)

Financial Impact

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Current Workarounds

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Methodology & Sources

Data collected via OSINT from regulatory filings, industry audits, and verified case studies.

Evidence Sources:

Related Business Risks

Vazamento de Receita por Energia Curtailada

11% curtailment = R$ 1.5-3 billion lost revenue/year (on 2025 67 GW base at R$ 350-450/MWh).

Atraso na Cobrança e Recebimento de Créditos de Energia

Estimated 30-60 days delayed cash collection per billing cycle; typical impact of 2-4% annual financial loss for operators managing 50+ beneficiary contracts (estimated R$50,000–R$200,000 annual opportunity cost for mid-size solar lease portfolios).

Divergências no Rateio de Créditos de Energia e Perda de Receita

Estimated 1-5% annual revenue loss from energy credit divergences; for a mid-size solar lease portfolio generating R$500,000–R$1,000,000 annually, this represents R$5,000–R$50,000 in unrecovered credits.

Gargalos Operacionais no Cadastro e Gestão de Contratos de Aluguel

Estimated 20-40 hours per month of administrative staff time for managing 50–100 contracts (typical portfolio); at Brazilian average labor cost of R$50–R$80/hour, represents R$40,000–R$128,000 annual opportunity cost; also estimated 2-3% deal slippage (missed renewals, lapsed contracts) annually.

Riscos de Conformidade Fiscal e Não-Conformidade com Regulação ANEEL

Estimated statutory penalties: (a) NF-e rejection/non-issuance: R$2,000–R$10,000 per occurrence; (b) SPED omission: R$500–R$5,000 per month; (c) Income tax underreporting: 75% of undeclared amount + interest; (d) ANEEL non-transparency audit: project disqualification or R$10,000–R$100,000 administrative fine. Typical cumulative annual risk for non-automated operators: R$15,000–R$75,000.

Compra desnecessária de Certificados de Energia Renovável (I-REC) no Brasil

R$ 380M+ em despesa desnecessária estimada (diferença de 5,5M certificados × ~R$ 70/certificado, baseado em declínio de preço global de créditos renovável de US$ 4/tCO2 para US$ 2/tCO2)[2][4]

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