Poor Print Run Sizing Decisions Leading to Sell-Through Imbalances

Campaigns that sell out too quickly waste co-op and media spend and cap upside, losing potential incremental revenue of $50,000–$200,000 per title, while overprinting for campaigns that underperform can leave $20,000–$80,000 of excess chain-focused inventory that is later returned or pulped. • Carrying costs and write‑offs on overprinted offset stock at chains can reach tens of thousands of dollars per title, while underprinting causes empty shelves and lost sell‑through opportunities on otherwise healthy midlist and backlist titles. • Conservative assumptions routinely cause shortfalls of 500–2,000 copies on breakout indie titles, losing $10,000–$40,000 in margin per title, while overprinting midlist titles for indies can leave 1,000–3,000 unsold copies, tying up $5,000–$25,000 in print, storage, and pulping costs per title.

Building a rough bottom-up forecast in Excel from indie rep feedback, historical sell-in to wholesalers, and a few POS snapshots, then padding numbers to cover uncertainty without a formal model. • Building master Excel models that merge rep-reported adoptions, historical sell-through, and forecasted enrollments per course or institution, and then translating these into recommended print quantities by title and edition. • Collecting territory forecasts via email and spreadsheets, then consolidating them into a master Excel file where manual adjustments are made for perceived optimism, minimum economical print quantities, and freight considerations.