🇧🇷Brazil

Perda de Receita por Parada de Turnaround Não Otimizada

2 verified sources

Definition

Refinery turnaround planning in Brasil currently relies on manual spreadsheet-based scenario modeling and trial-and-error methods. Search results indicate that Revap (252,000 barrels/day capacity, ~14% of Petrobras output) executes 6-yearly shutdowns requiring 4-month mobilization. Each day of unnecessary shutdown equals ~252,000 barrels × R$ 3-5/barrel margin = R$ 756M-1.26B annual forgone revenue per refinery. Manual planning delays decision-making by weeks, pushing shutdowns into suboptimal seasonal windows with worse margin conditions.

Key Findings

  • Financial Impact: R$ 100-500M per refinery annually (estimated based on 5-10 day optimization window × production capacity × refined product margins). Revap case: R$ 1B shutdown investment + 4-month production loss recovery = ~R$ 2-3B annual impact across turnaround cycle.
  • Frequency: Every 6 years (mandatory NR-13 inspection cycle), but planning decisions made monthly; quarterly re-scheduling adds cumulative inefficiency
  • Root Cause: Manual maintenance interval optimization using spreadsheets; lack of real-time production interdependency modeling; trial-and-error scheduling of 1,600+ equipment units and multiple unit groups

Why This Matters

The Pitch: Brazilian refineries waste R$ 100-500M annually per facility due to unoptimized turnaround scheduling. Automation of maintenance interval planning and conflict resolution eliminates manual delays and compresses shutdown windows by 10-20%, recovering 5-10 production days per cycle.

Affected Stakeholders

Refinaria Operations Manager, Maintenance Planning Engineer, Production Scheduler, Turnaround Project Manager

Deep Analysis (Premium)

Financial Impact

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Current Workarounds

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Methodology & Sources

Data collected via OSINT from regulatory filings, industry audits, and verified case studies.

Evidence Sources:

Related Business Risks

Sobrecusto em Mão de Obra e Recursos Devido a Planejamento Manual

R$ 50-150M per turnaround cycle per refinery (estimated: 15-25% overtime cost reduction opportunity; typical turnaround labor budget R$ 200-600M)

Multas Potenciais por Não Conformidade com NR-13 e Atrasos em Inspeção

R$ 1,703 to R$ 141,677+ per equipment unit per violation; aggregate exposure R$ 1M-10M per facility per audit cycle (typical penalty: R$ 5K-50K per equipment group non-compliance incident)

Erros de Planejamento Estratégico por Falta de Visibilidade em Dados Integrados

R$ 20-100M per turnaround cycle per refinery (estimated: 0.5-1% margin slippage due to suboptimal scheduling timing × R$ 5-20B annual refinery revenue)

Multas Ambientais e Administrativas por Não Conformidade Operacional

R$5,000–R$2,000,000 per violation (flaring/venting); additional fines unspecified in law but enforcement occurs via ANP administrative procedures

Custos de Remediação e Descomissionamento Obrigatório Não Previstos

Cost of remediation varies by site; penalties: detention 6 months–1 year + unspecified fine (estimated R$10,000–R$500,000 per site based on severity); cumulative multi-site losses: R$100,000–R$5,000,000+ over operational life

Multas por Não Conformidade em Relatórios de Emissões de Carbono

Multa: até BRL 20.000.000 ou 4% de receita bruta por não conformidade; Custo operacional estimado: 150-300 horas/ano por empresa para coleta de dados, cálculos e preparação de relatórios (R$ 45.000-90.000 em custos internos ou outsourcing).

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