🇧🇷Brazil

Erros de Planejamento Estratégico por Falta de Visibilidade em Dados Integrados

2 verified sources

Definition

Search results show refineries use 'trial-and-error' and 'spreadsheet-based' planning for maintenance scheduling. A decision-support MILP tool would enable rapid scenario evaluation: (Scenario 1) maximize profit with 6-year intervals, (Scenario 2) compress to 18 months with higher maintenance cost, etc. The paper shows Scenario 3 vs Scenario 1 differs by 0.07% profit margin — small difference that scales to R$ 50-200M annually on a refinery processing 250K bbl/day. Manual planning cannot discover this margin optimality; errors are common.

Key Findings

  • Financial Impact: R$ 20-100M per turnaround cycle per refinery (estimated: 0.5-1% margin slippage due to suboptimal scheduling timing × R$ 5-20B annual refinery revenue)
  • Frequency: Turnaround scheduled every 6 years; quarterly/annual campaign-level decisions made annually
  • Root Cause: Lack of integrated data systems; absence of multi-period optimization models; reliance on historical 'rules of thumb' rather than data-driven scenario analysis

Why This Matters

The Pitch: Brazilian refineries waste R$ 20-100M per turnaround cycle by scheduling maintenance at wrong times or with misaligned resource allocations. Scenario modeling (MILP-based decision support) identifies optimal turnaround windows (low-margin seasons, contractor availability) and unit groupings, recovering 5-10% margin uplift per cycle.

Affected Stakeholders

VP Operations, Production Planning Manager, Turnaround Director, Finance/CFO, Process Engineer

Deep Analysis (Premium)

Financial Impact

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Current Workarounds

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Methodology & Sources

Data collected via OSINT from regulatory filings, industry audits, and verified case studies.

Evidence Sources:

Related Business Risks

Perda de Receita por Parada de Turnaround Não Otimizada

R$ 100-500M per refinery annually (estimated based on 5-10 day optimization window × production capacity × refined product margins). Revap case: R$ 1B shutdown investment + 4-month production loss recovery = ~R$ 2-3B annual impact across turnaround cycle.

Sobrecusto em Mão de Obra e Recursos Devido a Planejamento Manual

R$ 50-150M per turnaround cycle per refinery (estimated: 15-25% overtime cost reduction opportunity; typical turnaround labor budget R$ 200-600M)

Multas Potenciais por Não Conformidade com NR-13 e Atrasos em Inspeção

R$ 1,703 to R$ 141,677+ per equipment unit per violation; aggregate exposure R$ 1M-10M per facility per audit cycle (typical penalty: R$ 5K-50K per equipment group non-compliance incident)

Multas Ambientais e Administrativas por Não Conformidade Operacional

R$5,000–R$2,000,000 per violation (flaring/venting); additional fines unspecified in law but enforcement occurs via ANP administrative procedures

Custos de Remediação e Descomissionamento Obrigatório Não Previstos

Cost of remediation varies by site; penalties: detention 6 months–1 year + unspecified fine (estimated R$10,000–R$500,000 per site based on severity); cumulative multi-site losses: R$100,000–R$5,000,000+ over operational life

Multas por Não Conformidade em Relatórios de Emissões de Carbono

Multa: até BRL 20.000.000 ou 4% de receita bruta por não conformidade; Custo operacional estimado: 150-300 horas/ano por empresa para coleta de dados, cálculos e preparação de relatórios (R$ 45.000-90.000 em custos internos ou outsourcing).

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